Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.33 – 159.07

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 49.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.9 ±15.4

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 164.21Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10439Wild Wires

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 23.56Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -13.44Rank 50Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417.2 ±13.5

9570Valiant

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 45.58Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5041CyBears

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 14.18Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 99.31Rank 8Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7257, 10439, 5576

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7257, 10439, 5576

Auto

5.1 3%

Teleop

114.0 64%

Endgame

58.0 33%

Strengths

· 7257 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9570, 5041, 1108

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9570, 5041, 1108

Auto

20.7 13%

Teleop

97.1 59%

Endgame

47.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score174.3pts

Blue projected score159.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.3
Score range: 129–204
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 164.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.9Season APEX417.2

5.1Auto20.7

114Teleop97.1

58Endgame47.1

36Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	30
teleop	60	94
endgame	9	59
foul	0	0
total	100	183

Result

Final score

100 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 49.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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