Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.74 – 153.94

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.8 ±17.2

8766The Black Machine

Provisional

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 5.97Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 43.29Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2227Tigers

Season APEX 55Event APEX 38.48Rank 47Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 471.2 ±14.1

8821TVRT-Trojanbots

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX -10.15Rank 52Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

5275T.I.M.E.-Bots

Season APEX 77Event APEX -16.18Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 180.27Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8766, 3267, 2227

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8766, 3267, 2227

Auto

19.9 21%

Teleop

49.9 54%

Endgame

23.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8821, 5275, 2847

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8821, 5275, 2847

Auto

36.1 24%

Teleop

104.3 70%

Endgame

8.4 6%

Strengths

· 2847 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score87.7pts

Blue projected score153.9pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.2
Score range: 58–184
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 165.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.8Season APEX471.2

19.9Auto36.1

49.9Teleop104.3

23.4Endgame8.4

130Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	67
teleop	28	113
endgame	12	8
foul	10	5
total	74	193

Result

Final score

74 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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