Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.47 – 194.36

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 103.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436.2 ±12.8

3298ArrowBots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX -17.05Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 143.98Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1997STAGROBOTICS

Season APEX 80.7Event APEX 39.54Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.8 ±13.5

6420Fire Island Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX -3.77Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 54.44Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 143.69Rank 9Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3298, 4646, 1997

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3298, 4646, 1997

Auto

34.3 21%

Teleop

79.5 49%

Endgame

47.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6420, 5442, 3928

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6420, 5442, 3928

Auto

65.3 35%

Teleop

110.0 59%

Endgame

10.1 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score166.5pts

Blue projected score194.4pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.9
Score range: 136–224
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 425 vs event baseline 164.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436.2Season APEX425.8

34.3Auto65.3

79.5Teleop110

47.1Endgame10.1

14Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	15
teleop	147	65
endgame	78	43
foul	5	0
total	302	123

Result

Final score

302 – 123

Prediction missed · off by 103.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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