Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178.47 – 359.12

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.6 ±17.7

4260BEAR (Blue Earth Area Robotics)

Provisional

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 40.48Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8770FireBolts

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 4.01Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 133.98Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582.6 ±16

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 127.85Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10476Thunderbots

Provisional

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 36.09Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 195.18Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4260, 8770, 6419

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4260, 8770, 6419

Auto

42.2 23%

Teleop

102.8 57%

Endgame

35.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 167, 10476, 5809

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.1 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 167, 10476, 5809

Auto

33.2 10%

Teleop

239.8 69%

Endgame

75.3 22%

Strengths

· 5809 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score178.5pts

Blue projected score359.1pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -180.6
Score range: 149–388
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 468 vs event baseline 162.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.6Season APEX582.6

42.2Auto33.2

102.8Teleop239.8

35.7Endgame75.3

20Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	70
teleop	16	203
endgame	78	51
foul	0	20
total	124	344

Result

Final score

124 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 34.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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