Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

319.29 – 220.17

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

360 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.1 ±15.5

6455The Coded Collective

Provisional

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 41.61Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 151.78Rank 9Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 125.9Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.1 ±17.2

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 97.18Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8822Lc3 Thunderbirds

Provisional

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 32.94Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7848WI-FIghterz

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 90.05Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6455, 3928, 7257

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6455, 3928, 7257

Auto

57.4 18%

Teleop

203.6 63%

Endgame

60.7 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2654, 8822, 7848

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2654, 8822, 7848

Auto

26.7 13%

Teleop

118.0 57%

Endgame

63.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score319.3pts

Blue projected score220.2pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.1
Score range: 186–353
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 620 vs event baseline 187.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.1Season APEX324.1

57.4Auto26.7

203.6Teleop118

60.7Endgame63.9

13Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	29
teleop	250	150
endgame	54	81
foul	5	0
total	360	260

Result

Final score

360 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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