Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.96 – 115.19

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 438 ±18.7

9543Cyclone Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 7.6Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 151.82Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11219North Union Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 15.54Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.4 ±20

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 107.72Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9061Mechanical Mutts

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX -26.01Rank 39Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6805Quack Attack

Provisional

Season APEX 75Event APEX 33.48Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9543, 4728, 11219

/ 100 compat

Projected

175 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9543, 4728, 11219

Auto

33.9 19%

Teleop

131.9 74%

Endgame

12.8 7%

Strengths

· 4728 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2654, 9061, 6805

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2654, 9061, 6805

Auto

28.7 24%

Teleop

72.0 61%

Endgame

16.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score175pts

Blue projected score115.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.8
Score range: 86–204
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 369 vs event baseline 162.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

438Season APEX261.4

33.9Auto28.7

131.9Teleop72

12.8Endgame16.8

38Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	8
teleop	161	56
endgame	38	40
foul	10	0
total	265	104

Result

Final score

265 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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