Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

139.05 – 87.82

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 51.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.4 ±13.9

7038Totino-Grace Pizza Pi's

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 7.43Rank 53Record 0-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 30.62Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7848WI-FIghterz

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 101Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232 ±19.3

8737Rocket Rampage#8737

Provisional

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 31.01Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9092Tower Robotics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 20.34Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5914Robotic Warriors

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 36.47Rank 23Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7038, 5557, 7848

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7038, 5557, 7848

Auto

22.3 17%

Teleop

42.1 33%

Endgame

63.3 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8737, 9092, 5914

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8737, 9092, 5914

Auto

35.5 41%

Teleop

25.1 29%

Endgame

25.4 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score139.1pts

Blue projected score87.8pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.2
Score range: 58–169
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 164.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.4Season APEX232

22.3Auto35.5

42.1Teleop25.1

63.3Endgame25.4

44Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	27
teleop	47	11
endgame	33	8
foul	0	90
total	84	136

Result

Final score

84 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 51.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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