Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.64 – 108.21

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 216

Prediction missed · off by 90.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.3 ±20.5

11241PRAIRIE

Provisional

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 14.34Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5935Tech Tigers

Provisional

Season APEX 84Event APEX 33.37Rank 31Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7531Servos Strike Back

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 65.93Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.3 ±17.2

3723TEKnights

Provisional

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX -0.9Rank 24Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 61.08Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 48.03Rank 33Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11241, 5935, 7531

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11241, 5935, 7531

Auto

17.7 17%

Teleop

39.6 38%

Endgame

47.0 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3723, 967, 525

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3723, 967, 525

Auto

-5.7 0%

Teleop

93.7 89%

Endgame

16.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113.6pts

Blue projected score108.2pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.4
Score range: 78–144
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 165.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.3Season APEX258.3

17.7Auto-5.7

39.6Teleop93.7

47Endgame16.7

32Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	30
teleop	18	133
endgame	6	53
foul	5	0
total	40	216

Result

Final score

40 – 216

Prediction missed · off by 90.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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