Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.36 – 135.46

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447 ±13.5

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 46.48Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 105.96Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5837Unity4Tech

Season APEX 107Event APEX 52.92Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.9 ±22.5

6455The Coded Collective

Provisional

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 52.86Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11312Royal Flush

Provisional

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 51.06Rank 22Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8822Lc3 Thunderbirds

Provisional

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 31.54Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3267, 59, 5837

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3267, 59, 5837

Auto

41.5 20%

Teleop

99.4 48%

Endgame

65.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6455, 11312, 8822

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6455, 11312, 8822

Auto

42.4 33%

Teleop

60.2 47%

Endgame

26.7 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score205.4pts

Blue projected score135.5pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.9
Score range: 105–235
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 165.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447Season APEX261.9

41.5Auto42.4

99.4Teleop60.2

65.8Endgame26.7

97Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	28
teleop	94	18
endgame	24	20
foul	35	0
total	185	66

Result

Final score

185 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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