Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

122.9 – 184.89

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

276 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 134.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.2 ±13.9

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 12.34Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 107.54Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1997STAGROBOTICS

Season APEX 80.7Event APEX 3.02Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 493.8 ±16.4

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 118.12Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11210MACHS Raiders 1

Provisional

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 29.17Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9570Valiant

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 37.6Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 648, 167, 1997

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 648, 167, 1997

Auto

28.7 24%

Teleop

55.5 46%

Endgame

36.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4646, 11210, 9570

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4646, 11210, 9570

Auto

12.1 7%

Teleop

100.8 58%

Endgame

60.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score122.9pts

Blue projected score184.9pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62
Score range: 94–214
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 577 vs event baseline 161.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.2Season APEX493.8

28.7Auto12.1

55.5Teleop100.8

36.6Endgame60.1

39Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	70
teleop	139	169
endgame	88	62
foul	0	0
total	276	301

Result

Final score

276 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 134.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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