Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.69 – 158.57

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 98.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.8 ±17.2

6805Quack Attack

Provisional

Season APEX 75Event APEX 15.13Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 120.97Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 22.59Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.2 ±18.2

5914Robotic Warriors

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 42.46Rank 23Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8766The Black Machine

Provisional

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 27.52Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3055Furious George

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 88.59Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6805, 6419, 5442

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6805, 6419, 5442

Auto

50.2 30%

Teleop

87.5 53%

Endgame

28.3 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5914, 8766, 3055

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5914, 8766, 3055

Auto

13.7 9%

Teleop

97.2 64%

Endgame

42.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score158.7pts

Blue projected score158.6pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.1
Score range: 130–188
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 160.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.8Season APEX233.2

50.2Auto13.7

87.5Teleop97.2

28.3Endgame42

78Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	14
teleop	182	44
endgame	58	27
foul	0	0
total	283	85

Result

Final score

283 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 98.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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