Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.61 – 159.71

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 43.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.4 ±16.8

5141GRIFFINITE

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 11.69Rank 32Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -17.71Rank 50Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9092Tower Robotics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 25.63Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.7 ±17.7

2227Tigers

Season APEX 55Event APEX 52.03Rank 47Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7531Servos Strike Back

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 73.99Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8737Rocket Rampage#8737

Provisional

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 33.69Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5141, 5576, 9092

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5141, 5576, 9092

Auto

17.9 79%

Teleop

-7.4 0%

Endgame

12.3 54%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2227, 7531, 8737

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2227, 7531, 8737

Auto

26.6 17%

Teleop

80.3 51%

Endgame

49.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score19.6pts

Blue projected score159.7pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -140.1
Score range: -9–189
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 162.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.4Season APEX188.7

17.9Auto26.6

-7.4Teleop80.3

12.3Endgame49.9

19Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	32
teleop	8	63
endgame	30	19
foul	0	0
total	60	114

Result

Final score

60 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 43.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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