Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

167.3 – 131.37

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

272 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 70.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.4 ±13.5

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 91.67Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 83.84Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8770FireBolts

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX -8.21Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.3 ±20

11241PRAIRIE

Provisional

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 22.56Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9579Tech Devils

Provisional

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 26.59Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 82.22Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 59, 2654, 8770

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 59, 2654, 8770

Auto

26.9 16%

Teleop

78.1 46%

Endgame

65.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11241, 9579, 967

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11241, 9579, 967

Auto

14.8 11%

Teleop

108.3 82%

Endgame

8.7 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score167.3pts

Blue projected score131.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.9
Score range: 102–196
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 162.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423.4Season APEX239.3

26.9Auto14.8

78.1Teleop108.3

65.6Endgame8.7

131Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	21
teleop	146	35
endgame	55	34
foul	0	5
total	272	95

Result

Final score

272 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 70.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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