Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

319.4 – 88.53

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

356 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 559 ±16.4

11312Royal Flush

Provisional

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 33.33Rank 22Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 149.94Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 136.13Rank 8Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.2 ±18.8

9092Tower Robotics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 46.49Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3298ArrowBots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 22.64Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6805Quack Attack

Provisional

Season APEX 75Event APEX 19.4Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11312, 5809, 1108

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.4 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11312, 5809, 1108

Auto

54.0 18%

Teleop

188.7 63%

Endgame

58.7 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9092, 3298, 6805

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.5 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9092, 3298, 6805

Auto

14.7 18%

Teleop

41.8 52%

Endgame

23.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score319.4pts

Blue projected score88.5pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 230.9
Score range: 55–353
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 187.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

559Season APEX241.2

54Auto14.7

188.7Teleop41.8

58.7Endgame23.3

16Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	22
teleop	234	5
endgame	66	6
foul	5	0
total	356	33

Result

Final score

356 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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