Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.62 – 138.8

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 52.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.5 ±19.3

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 135.13Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6455The Coded Collective

Provisional

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 70.55Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9061Mechanical Mutts

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX -20.06Rank 39Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.9 ±19.3

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 122.18Rank 9Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5935Tech Tigers

Provisional

Season APEX 84Event APEX 28.8Rank 31Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3723TEKnights

Provisional

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX -12.18Rank 24Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6147, 6455, 9061

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6147, 6455, 9061

Auto

39.7 21%

Teleop

143.5 76%

Endgame

6.6 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3928, 5935, 3723

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3928, 5935, 3723

Auto

43.2 31%

Teleop

73.2 53%

Endgame

20.8 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score185.6pts

Blue projected score138.8pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.8
Score range: 110–215
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 397 vs event baseline 161.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.5Season APEX377.9

39.7Auto43.2

143.5Teleop73.2

6.6Endgame20.8

13Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	40
teleop	73	136
endgame	57	32
foul	5	20
total	169	228

Result

Final score

169 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 52.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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