Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

312.63 – 104.84

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 86.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 474.5 ±18.7

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 204.37Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10476Thunderbots

Provisional

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 61.74Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8822Lc3 Thunderbirds

Provisional

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 46.52Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.1 ±16.9

11210MACHS Raiders 1

Provisional

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 5.89Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 96.52Rank 8Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7038Totino-Grace Pizza Pi's

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 2.43Rank 53Record 0-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2847, 10476, 8822

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2847, 10476, 8822

Auto

28.6 9%

Teleop

188.5 62%

Endgame

86.3 28%

Strengths

· 2847 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11210, 1108, 7038

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11210, 1108, 7038

Auto

10.5 10%

Teleop

72.4 67%

Endgame

25.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score312.6pts

Blue projected score104.8pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 207.8
Score range: 76–342
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 355 vs event baseline 161.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

474.5Season APEX413.1

28.6Auto10.5

188.5Teleop72.4

86.3Endgame25

58Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	45
teleop	118	84
endgame	0	31
foul	0	0
total	195	160

Result

Final score

195 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 86.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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