Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

67.76 – 24.38

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.5 ±17.2

9579Tech Devils

Provisional

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 10.57Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 46.65Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 10.54Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.2 ±20.5

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -16.54Rank 50Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6805Quack Attack

Provisional

Season APEX 75Event APEX 6.09Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11241PRAIRIE

Provisional

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 34.83Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9579, 3267, 5442

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9579, 3267, 5442

Auto

43.2 57%

Teleop

25.1 33%

Endgame

7.9 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5576, 6805, 11241

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5576, 6805, 11241

Auto

-5.1 0%

Teleop

19.3 64%

Endgame

15.8 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score67.8pts

Blue projected score24.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.4
Score range: -6–98
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 128 vs event baseline 164.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.5Season APEX167.2

43.2Auto-5.1

25.1Teleop19.3

7.9Endgame15.8

80Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	10
teleop	58	2
endgame	21	2
foul	0	0
total	114	14

Result

Final score

114 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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