Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.1 – 193.67

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.3 ±18.8

8766The Black Machine

Provisional

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 39.63Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9092Tower Robotics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 52.84Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1997STAGROBOTICS

Season APEX 80.7Event APEX 13.63Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.9 ±16.5

11219North Union Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 28.97Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 85.53Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 79.17Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8766, 9092, 1997

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8766, 9092, 1997

Auto

5.8 6%

Teleop

56.0 59%

Endgame

32.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11219, 2654, 967

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11219, 2654, 967

Auto

28.7 15%

Teleop

143.4 76%

Endgame

15.6 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score106.1pts

Blue projected score193.7pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87.6
Score range: 76–224
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 166.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.3Season APEX341.9

5.8Auto28.7

56Teleop143.4

32.8Endgame15.6

18Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	16
teleop	22	118
endgame	10	22
foul	0	0
total	47	156

Result

Final score

47 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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