Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.6 – 4.39

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 77.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.9 ±16.4

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 83.79Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7848WI-FIghterz

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 112.43Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4260BEAR (Blue Earth Area Robotics)

Provisional

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 33.38Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.2 ±15

2227Tigers

Season APEX 55Event APEX 17.4Rank 47Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX -6.22Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5041CyBears

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX -6.79Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 59, 7848, 4260

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 59, 7848, 4260

Auto

20.4 9%

Teleop

111.6 51%

Endgame

85.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2227, 648, 5041

/ 100 compat

Projected

4.4 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2227, 648, 5041

Auto

13.4 100%

Teleop

-16.2 0%

Endgame

4.3 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score229.6pts

Blue projected score4.4pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 225.2
Score range: -26–260
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 165.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.9Season APEX238.2

20.4Auto13.4

111.6Teleop-16.2

85.3Endgame4.3

86Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	22
teleop	134	57
endgame	75	38
foul	0	15
total	257	132

Result

Final score

257 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 77.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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