Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

299.14 – 55.93

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 85.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 519 ±16.4

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 145.04Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9061Mechanical Mutts

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX -2.1Rank 39Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 156.2Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.2 ±17.7

3298ArrowBots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX -10.76Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8770FireBolts

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX -17.73Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6455The Coded Collective

Provisional

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 84.42Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6419, 9061, 4646

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6419, 9061, 4646

Auto

9.9 3%

Teleop

161.3 57%

Endgame

114.2 40%

Strengths

· 4646 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3298, 8770, 6455

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3298, 8770, 6455

Auto

14.3 26%

Teleop

38.6 71%

Endgame

1.3 2%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score299.1pts

Blue projected score55.9pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 243.2
Score range: 26–329
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 167.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

519Season APEX202.2

9.9Auto14.3

161.3Teleop38.6

114.2Endgame1.3

56Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	10
teleop	73	3
endgame	0	4
foul	0	0
total	167	17

Result

Final score

167 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 85.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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