Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

310.74 – 108.89

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

309 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.4 ±16.4

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 75.45Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9543Cyclone Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 21.93Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 213.36Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.2 ±16.8

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 30.47Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4260BEAR (Blue Earth Area Robotics)

Provisional

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 34.08Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 44.34Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 967, 9543, 2847

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.7 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 967, 9543, 2847

Auto

55.9 18%

Teleop

201.7 66%

Endgame

48.6 16%

Strengths

· 2847 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5557, 4260, 5442

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5557, 4260, 5442

Auto

39.5 34%

Teleop

43.2 37%

Endgame

34.0 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score310.7pts

Blue projected score108.9pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 201.9
Score range: 75–345
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 433 vs event baseline 187.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.4Season APEX336.2

55.9Auto39.5

201.7Teleop43.2

48.6Endgame34

41Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	40
teleop	236	57
endgame	9	22
foul	10	5
total	309	124

Result

Final score

309 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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