Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.91 – 11.27

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

230 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 355 ±14.1

6420Fire Island Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 0.58Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 135.41Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3055Furious George

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 46.92Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245 ±18.2

8821TVRT-Trojanbots

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX -8.86Rank 52Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

8737Rocket Rampage#8737

Provisional

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 21.66Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7038Totino-Grace Pizza Pi's

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX -1.53Rank 53Record 0-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6420, 7257, 3055

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6420, 7257, 3055

Auto

13.3 9%

Teleop

99.9 64%

Endgame

41.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8821, 8737, 7038

/ 100 compat

Projected

11.3 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8821, 8737, 7038

Auto

18.4 100%

Teleop

1.6 9%

Endgame

-2.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score182.9pts

Blue projected score11.3pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 171.6
Score range: -19–213
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 168.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

355Season APEX245

13.3Auto18.4

99.9Teleop1.6

41.9Endgame-2.4

92Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	24
teleop	150	3
endgame	38	15
foul	0	15
total	230	57

Result

Final score

230 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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