Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

240.1 – 263.3

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

334 – 300

Prediction missed · off by 65.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437.2 ±12.8

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 176.6Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 49.78Rank 33Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9570Valiant

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 13.72Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.4 ±20

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 191.89Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9579Tech Devils

Provisional

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX -2.76Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6455The Coded Collective

Provisional

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 74.17Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2847, 525, 9570

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2847, 525, 9570

Auto

23.1 10%

Teleop

172.3 73%

Endgame

40.8 17%

Strengths

· 2847 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5809, 9579, 6455

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5809, 9579, 6455

Auto

37.1 14%

Teleop

196.8 75%

Endgame

26.9 10%

Strengths

· 5809 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score240.1pts

Blue projected score263.3pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.2
Score range: 211–292
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 634 vs event baseline 159.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437.2Season APEX368.4

23.1Auto37.1

172.3Teleop196.8

40.8Endgame26.9

162Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	49
teleop	210	201
endgame	97	40
foul	10	10
total	334	300

Result

Final score

334 – 300

Prediction missed · off by 65.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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