Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.17 – 135.78

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

109 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 49 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.6 ±13.9

7848WI-FIghterz

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 109.07Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2227Tigers

Season APEX 55Event APEX 25.57Rank 47Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3298ArrowBots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX -2.47Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.6 ±19.7

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 56.65Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11241PRAIRIE

Provisional

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 49.19Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11210MACHS Raiders 1

Provisional

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 29.94Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7848, 2227, 3298

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7848, 2227, 3298

Auto

22.8 17%

Teleop

71.2 52%

Endgame

42.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5557, 11241, 11210

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5557, 11241, 11210

Auto

22.4 16%

Teleop

67.7 48%

Endgame

50.6 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.2pts

Blue projected score135.8pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.6
Score range: 103–165
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 162.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.6Season APEX298.6

22.8Auto22.4

71.2Teleop67.7

42.3Endgame50.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	20
teleop	41	22
endgame	48	14
foul	5	5
total	109	61

Result

Final score

109 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 49 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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