Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

162.85 – 112.91

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 76.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333 ±17

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 26.88Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5837Unity4Tech

Season APEX 107Event APEX 69.63Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10476Thunderbots

Provisional

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 66.34Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327 ±15.8

9092Tower Robotics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 21.77Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 33.93Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 57.21Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5442, 5837, 10476

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5442, 5837, 10476

Auto

24.5 14%

Teleop

98.3 55%

Endgame

54.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9092, 3267, 2654

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9092, 3267, 2654

Auto

37.7 34%

Teleop

56.4 50%

Endgame

18.0 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score162.9pts

Blue projected score112.9pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.9
Score range: 84–192
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 295 vs event baseline 163.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333Season APEX327

24.5Auto37.7

98.3Teleop56.4

54.4Endgame18

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	32
teleop	55	90
endgame	22	57
foul	5	20
total	96	199

Result

Final score

96 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 76.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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