Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

38.66 – 37.11

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

78 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.6 ±18.2

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -17.29Rank 50Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5914Robotic Warriors

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 21.99Rank 23Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

11312Royal Flush

Provisional

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 33.96Rank 22Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224 ±20

9061Mechanical Mutts

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX -2.19Rank 39Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1997STAGROBOTICS

Season APEX 80.7Event APEX 3.87Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4260BEAR (Blue Earth Area Robotics)

Provisional

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 35.43Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5576, 5914, 11312

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5576, 5914, 11312

Auto

26.3 49%

Teleop

6.3 12%

Endgame

21.3 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9061, 1997, 4260

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9061, 1997, 4260

Auto

5.2 23%

Teleop

14.3 64%

Endgame

2.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score38.7pts

Blue projected score37.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.5
Score range: 7–69
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 98 vs event baseline 168.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.6Season APEX224

26.3Auto5.2

6.3Teleop14.3

21.3Endgame2.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	14
teleop	45	1
endgame	15	0
foul	0	5
total	78	20

Result

Final score

78 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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