Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.42 – 111.18

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

456 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 150.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 600.9 ±13.5

3055Furious George

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 4.44Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 145.47Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 99.51Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.4 ±16.9

5935Tech Tigers

Provisional

Season APEX 84Event APEX 17.59Rank 31Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 111.05Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5275T.I.M.E.-Bots

Season APEX 77Event APEX -17.46Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3055, 5809, 4646

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3055, 5809, 4646

Auto

29.8 12%

Teleop

135.6 56%

Endgame

76.2 32%

Strengths

· 5809 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5935, 7257, 5275

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5935, 7257, 5275

Auto

13.7 13%

Teleop

73.5 68%

Endgame

20.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score249.4pts

Blue projected score111.2pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 138.2
Score range: 82–278
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 662 vs event baseline 161.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

600.9Season APEX340.4

29.8Auto13.7

135.6Teleop73.5

76.2Endgame20.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	15
teleop	276	95
endgame	99	81
foul	60	15
total	456	206

Result

Final score

456 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 150.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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