Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.56 – 39.52

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.3 ±20.5

8822Lc3 Thunderbirds

Provisional

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 71.14Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5041CyBears

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 1.57Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6805Quack Attack

Provisional

Season APEX 75Event APEX 5.85Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.2 ±15

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 49.63Rank 33Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5141GRIFFINITE

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 22.15Rank 32Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

8770FireBolts

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX -32.26Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8822, 5041, 6805

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8822, 5041, 6805

Auto

20.9 26%

Teleop

22.5 28%

Endgame

38.4 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 525, 5141, 8770

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 525, 5141, 8770

Auto

7.7 21%

Teleop

11.9 33%

Endgame

16.9 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score78.6pts

Blue projected score39.5pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39
Score range: 10–109
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 166.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.3Season APEX211.2

20.9Auto7.7

22.5Teleop11.9

38.4Endgame16.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	13
teleop	21	44
endgame	8	34
foul	5	0
total	51	91

Result

Final score

51 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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