Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

256.48 – 219.81

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

359 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 66.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.7 ±16.4

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 131.53Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8737Rocket Rampage#8737

Provisional

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 6.87Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 118.08Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441 ±13.5

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 12.6Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 84.95Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 122.26Rank 9Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4728, 8737, 6419

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4728, 8737, 6419

Auto

35.3 14%

Teleop

136.7 54%

Endgame

78.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 648, 967, 3928

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 648, 967, 3928

Auto

29.7 14%

Teleop

165.8 77%

Endgame

21.0 10%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score256.5pts

Blue projected score219.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.7
Score range: 191–285
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 548 vs event baseline 160.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.7Season APEX441

35.3Auto29.7

136.7Teleop165.8

78.9Endgame21

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	72
teleop	213	94
endgame	95	18
foul	0	5
total	359	189

Result

Final score

359 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 66.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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