Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.84 – 181.08

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 264.6 ±17.5

7531Servos Strike Back

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 29.3Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

11219North Union Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 26.08Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5041CyBears

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 30.46Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.6 ±17.7

3055Furious George

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 44.75Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 112.58Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11241PRAIRIE

Provisional

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 23.75Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7531, 11219, 5041

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7531, 11219, 5041

Auto

21.8 25%

Teleop

51.3 60%

Endgame

12.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3055, 6419, 11241

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3055, 6419, 11241

Auto

31.2 18%

Teleop

85.7 51%

Endgame

52.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score85.8pts

Blue projected score181.1pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.2
Score range: 52–215
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 355 vs event baseline 187.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

264.6Season APEX297.6

21.8Auto31.2

51.3Teleop85.7

12.4Endgame52.1

65Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	23
teleop	71	113
endgame	31	75
foul	0	15
total	129	226

Result

Final score

129 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 44 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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