Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 295.47

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.2 ±15

6420Fire Island Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX -9.34Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8821TVRT-Trojanbots

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX -27.36Rank 52Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

9570Valiant

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 13.07Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 475.7 ±14.7

11219North Union Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 45.18Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 132.51Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 117.78Rank 8Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6420, 8821, 9570

/ 100 compat

Projected

-23.6 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6420, 8821, 9570

Auto

7.0 0%

Teleop

-20.5 65%

Endgame

-17.8 57%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11219, 6147, 1108

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.5 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11219, 6147, 1108

Auto

39.4 13%

Teleop

190.0 65%

Endgame

62.6 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.41 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-23.6pts

Blue projected score295.5pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -295.5
Score range: -29–324
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 161.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.2Season APEX475.7

7Auto39.4

-20.5Teleop190

-17.8Endgame62.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	43
teleop	15	182
endgame	4	32
foul	0	0
total	39	257

Result

Final score

39 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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