Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.9 – 108.43

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 35

Prediction missed · off by 126.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.8 ±18.4

11210MACHS Raiders 1

Provisional

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX -14.09Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 66.51Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10439Wild Wires

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX -4.52Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238 ±22.5

9061Mechanical Mutts

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 11.19Rank 39Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11312Royal Flush

Provisional

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 74.7Rank 22Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8766The Black Machine

Provisional

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 22.54Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11210, 167, 10439

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11210, 167, 10439

Auto

13.4 28%

Teleop

45.9 96%

Endgame

-11.3 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9061, 11312, 8766

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9061, 11312, 8766

Auto

14.9 14%

Teleop

74.1 67%

Endgame

21.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score47.9pts

Blue projected score108.4pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.5
Score range: 19–137
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 162.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.8Season APEX238

13.4Auto14.9

45.9Teleop74.1

-11.3Endgame21.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	16
teleop	150	9
endgame	67	10
foul	0	0
total	228	35

Result

Final score

228 – 35

Prediction missed · off by 126.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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