Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

80.51 – 47.6

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

18 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 68 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.2 ±15.6

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 48.95Rank 50Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3055Furious George

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 33.91Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5275T.I.M.E.-Bots

Season APEX 77Event APEX -2.35Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.2 ±18.1

9092Tower Robotics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX -0.77Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3723TEKnights

Provisional

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX -0.58Rank 24Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 48.95Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5576, 3055, 5275

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5576, 3055, 5275

Auto

3.2 4%

Teleop

42.5 54%

Endgame

32.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9092, 3723, 59

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9092, 3723, 59

Auto

7.7 16%

Teleop

17.0 36%

Endgame

22.1 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score80.5pts

Blue projected score47.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.9
Score range: 18–111
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 168.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.2Season APEX403.2

3.2Auto7.7

42.5Teleop17

32.6Endgame22.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	48
teleop	4	68
endgame	1	0
foul	0	5
total	18	121

Result

Final score

18 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 68 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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