Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.95 – 113.47

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 97.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.6 ±17.7

7038Totino-Grace Pizza Pi's

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX -9.09Rank 53Record 0-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

8822Lc3 Thunderbirds

Provisional

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 45.67Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2227Tigers

Season APEX 55Event APEX 8.37Rank 47Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417.8 ±17.2

5935Tech Tigers

Provisional

Season APEX 84Event APEX -9.09Rank 31Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 26.49Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 96.07Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7038, 8822, 2227

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7038, 8822, 2227

Auto

8.1 17%

Teleop

28.4 61%

Endgame

10.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5935, 5442, 5809

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5935, 5442, 5809

Auto

24.4 21%

Teleop

78.5 69%

Endgame

10.6 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44.9pts

Blue projected score113.5pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.5
Score range: 15–143
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 168.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.6Season APEX417.8

8.1Auto24.4

28.4Teleop78.5

10.3Endgame10.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	38
teleop	40	145
endgame	32	61
foul	5	5
total	104	249

Result

Final score

104 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 97.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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