Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.91 – 112.53

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 27

Prediction missed · off by 103.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.2 ±18.7

9579Tech Devils

Provisional

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 4.57Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 65.43Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10476Thunderbots

Provisional

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 32.91Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.7 ±20.5

9543Cyclone Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 51.82Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5041CyBears

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 29.17Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8737Rocket Rampage#8737

Provisional

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 31.54Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9579, 4646, 10476

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9579, 4646, 10476

Auto

7.6 7%

Teleop

54.8 53%

Endgame

41.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9543, 5041, 8737

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9543, 5041, 8737

Auto

29.4 26%

Teleop

77.4 68%

Endgame

6.9 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score102.9pts

Blue projected score112.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.6
Score range: 72–144
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 171.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.2Season APEX254.7

7.6Auto29.4

54.8Teleop77.4

41.2Endgame6.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	27
teleop	129	0
endgame	67	0
foul	0	0
total	224	27

Result

Final score

224 – 27

Prediction missed · off by 103.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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