Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.67 – 19.47

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

252 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 94.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387 ±14.1

5914Robotic Warriors

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 7.64Rank 23Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5141GRIFFINITE

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX -12.84Rank 32Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 86.87Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.4 ±17

9570Valiant

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 9.14Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11219North Union Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 32.59Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8770FireBolts

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX -22.26Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5914, 5141, 4728

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5914, 5141, 4728

Auto

20.0 24%

Teleop

55.7 67%

Endgame

7.4 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9570, 11219, 8770

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9570, 11219, 8770

Auto

10.9 45%

Teleop

11.9 49%

Endgame

1.3 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score81.7pts

Blue projected score19.5pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.2
Score range: -12–113
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 173.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387Season APEX253.4

20Auto10.9

55.7Teleop11.9

7.4Endgame1.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	11
teleop	131	16
endgame	73	7
foul	0	5
total	252	39

Result

Final score

252 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 94.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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