Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

61.39 – 49.33

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

110 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 285.3 ±15.8

3298ArrowBots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 9.62Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 57.74Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10439Wild Wires

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX -5.97Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.9 ±15

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 36.76Rank 33Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8821TVRT-Trojanbots

Season APEX 118.9Event APEX 9.14Rank 52Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 3.43Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3298, 2654, 10439

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3298, 2654, 10439

Auto

15.0 25%

Teleop

29.7 49%

Endgame

16.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 525, 8821, 648

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 525, 8821, 648

Auto

15.5 33%

Teleop

20.1 43%

Endgame

11.3 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61.4pts

Blue projected score49.3pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.1
Score range: 17–93
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 180.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

285.3Season APEX279.9

15Auto15.5

29.7Teleop20.1

16.5Endgame11.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	16
teleop	59	25
endgame	24	16
foul	5	5
total	110	62

Result

Final score

110 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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