Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.75 – 143.87

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

420 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 186.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528 ±12.4

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 111.43Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 81.29Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5837Unity4Tech

Season APEX 107Event APEX 5.03Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.2 ±13.9

1997STAGROBOTICS

Season APEX 80.7Event APEX 10.57Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7848WI-FIghterz

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 74.29Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 59.01Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6147, 2847, 5837

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6147, 2847, 5837

Auto

31.2 16%

Teleop

145.9 74%

Endgame

19.5 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1997, 7848, 6419

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1997, 7848, 6419

Auto

16.2 12%

Teleop

74.1 53%

Endgame

48.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score197.8pts

Blue projected score143.9pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.9
Score range: 114–228
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 715 vs event baseline 164.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528Season APEX362.2

31.2Auto16.2

145.9Teleop74.1

19.5Endgame48.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	32
teleop	286	153
endgame	89	105
foul	5	5
total	420	295

Result

Final score

420 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 186.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.