Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178.29 – 240

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

225 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 340.1 ±19.3

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 102.86Rank 9Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11241PRAIRIE

Provisional

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 64.57Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8766The Black Machine

Provisional

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 10.86Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 556.8 ±11

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 102.86Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 101.71Rank 8Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 35.43Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3928, 11241, 8766

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3928, 11241, 8766

Auto

25.7 15%

Teleop

106.6 62%

Endgame

38.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7257, 1108, 5557

/ 100 compat

Projected

240 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7257, 1108, 5557

Auto

40.6 17%

Teleop

154.6 66%

Endgame

40.6 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score178.3pts

Blue projected score240pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.7
Score range: 149–269
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 506 vs event baseline 160.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

340.1Season APEX556.8

25.7Auto40.6

106.6Teleop154.6

38.9Endgame40.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	47
teleop	132	141
endgame	41	88
foul	0	5
total	225	281

Result

Final score

225 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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