Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

70.2 – 67.65

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

38 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.8 ±20.5

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 37.94Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8766The Black Machine

Provisional

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 10.31Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3723TEKnights

Provisional

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 21.95Rank 24Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.4 ±15.6

8770FireBolts

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 15.3Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5837Unity4Tech

Season APEX 107Event APEX 40.97Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6420Fire Island Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 11.38Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 648, 8766, 3723

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 648, 8766, 3723

Auto

20.3 31%

Teleop

26.4 41%

Endgame

18.4 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8770, 5837, 6420

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8770, 5837, 6420

Auto

1.0 2%

Teleop

35.2 63%

Endgame

20.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score70.2pts

Blue projected score67.6pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.5
Score range: 34–104
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 61 vs event baseline 187.5.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.8Season APEX257.4

20.3Auto1

26.4Teleop35.2

18.4Endgame20.1

46Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	7
teleop	10	12
endgame	7	4
foul	5	0
total	38	23

Result

Final score

38 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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