Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

366.61 – 391.78

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

325 – 324

Prediction missed · off by 54.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 661.6 ±11

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 32.58Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 152.86Rank 9Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 181.17Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 608.3 ±13.9

10439Wild Wires

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX -7.09Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 215.88Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 182.99Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5557, 3928, 4646

/ 100 compat

Projected

366.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5557, 3928, 4646

Auto

92.9 23%

Teleop

221.5 55%

Endgame

91.8 23%

Strengths

· 4646 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10439, 2847, 4728

/ 100 compat

Projected

391.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10439, 2847, 4728

Auto

56.4 15%

Teleop

216.2 57%

Endgame

108.3 28%

Strengths

· 2847 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score366.6pts

Blue projected score391.8pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.2
Score range: 334–425
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 649 vs event baseline 185.9.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

661.6Season APEX608.3

92.9Auto56.4

221.5Teleop216.2

91.8Endgame108.3

0Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	82
teleop	141	201
endgame	59	36
foul	50	5
total	325	324

Result

Final score

325 – 324

Prediction missed · off by 54.7 pts

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