Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

423.46 – 420.12

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

0 – 338

Prediction missed · off by 252.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 661.6 ±11

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 53.4Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 168.82Rank 9Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 201.24Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 608.3 ±13.9

10439Wild Wires

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 7.23Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 222.61Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 190.28Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5557, 3928, 4646

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5557, 3928, 4646

Auto

88.5 21%

Teleop

235.0 57%

Endgame

92.1 22%

Strengths

· 4646 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10439, 2847, 4728

/ 100 compat

Projected

420.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10439, 2847, 4728

Auto

56.3 14%

Teleop

258.5 63%

Endgame

92.8 23%

Strengths

· 2847 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score423.5pts

Blue projected score420.1pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.3
Score range: 387–456
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 183.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

661.6Season APEX608.3

88.5Auto56.3

235Teleop258.5

92.1Endgame92.8

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	46
teleop	177	105
endgame	98	172
foul	40	15
total	0	338

Result

Final score

0 – 338

Prediction missed · off by 252.8 pts

Match videos

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