Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

656.81 – 642.21

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

749 – 398

Prediction correct · off by 168.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1000.3 ±8.7

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 93.42Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 312.76Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 250.63Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 885.1 ±8.7

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 196.03Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1701Robocubs

A+

Season APEX 301.3Event APEX 223.71Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 222.47Rank 11Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3506, 2056, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

656.8 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3506, 2056, 6329

Auto

172.4 27%

Teleop

360.4 56%

Endgame

115.6 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3015, 1701, 8749

/ 100 compat

Projected

642.2 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3015, 1701, 8749

Auto

121.8 19%

Teleop

349.6 55%

Endgame

165.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score656.8pts

Blue projected score642.2pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.6
Score range: 560–739
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1147 vs event baseline 453.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1000.3Season APEX885.1

172.4Auto121.8

360.4Teleop349.6

115.6Endgame165.1

115Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	166	55
teleop	388	182
endgame	175	156
foul	20	5
total	749	398

Result

Final score

749 – 398

Prediction correct · off by 168.2 pts

Match videos

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