Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

691.55 – 718.13

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

500 – 606

Prediction correct · off by 151.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1000.3 ±8.7

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 104.86Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 324.51Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 262.18Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 883.1 ±8.7

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 191.68Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 246.58Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 279.87Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3506, 2056, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

691.6 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 3506, 2056, 6329

Auto

173.8 25%

Teleop

378.3 55%

Endgame

131.4 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11270, 1732, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

718.1 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 11270, 1732, 8044

Auto

146.4 21%

Teleop

392.2 55%

Endgame

168.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.68 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score691.6pts

Blue projected score718.1pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 44%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.6
Score range: 611–799
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1106 vs event baseline 451.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1000.3Season APEX883.1

173.8Auto146.4

378.3Teleop392.2

131.4Endgame168.4

111Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	166	147
teleop	274	274
endgame	50	160
foul	10	25
total	500	606

Result

Final score

500 – 606

Prediction correct · off by 151.8 pts

Match videos

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