Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

675.87 – 592.91

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

658 – 600

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 924.2 ±8.8

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 154.05Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 245.11Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 276.71Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 908.5 ±11.2

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 173.02Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 209.2Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8214Cyber Unicorn

Season APEX 337.8Event APEX 210.69Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1986, 3467, 9785

/ 100 compat

Projected

675.9 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 1986, 3467, 9785

Auto

105.9 16%

Teleop

409.3 61%

Endgame

152.6 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1710, 8513, 8214

/ 100 compat

Projected

592.9 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 1710, 8513, 8214

Auto

162.6 29%

Teleop

318.1 56%

Endgame

89.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.51 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score675.9pts

Blue projected score592.9pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 45%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83
Score range: 512–757
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1258 vs event baseline 447.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

924.2Season APEX908.5

105.9Auto162.6

409.3Teleop318.1

152.6Endgame89.2

139Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	139	150
teleop	399	283
endgame	90	167
foul	30	0
total	658	600

Result

Final score

658 – 600

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 pts

Match videos

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