Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

615.27 – 706.07

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

650 – 755

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 906.4 ±8.7

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 166.28Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 233.6Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 215.39Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 883.1 ±8.7

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 188.31Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 241.96Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 275.8Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6328, 5000, 4698

/ 100 compat

Projected

615.3 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 6328, 5000, 4698

Auto

163.2 27%

Teleop

314.1 51%

Endgame

133.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11270, 1732, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

706.1 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 11270, 1732, 8044

Auto

140.6 20%

Teleop

382.7 55%

Endgame

173.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.52 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score615.3pts

Blue projected score706.1pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 44%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90.8
Score range: 535–786
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1405 vs event baseline 443.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

906.4Season APEX883.1

163.2Auto140.6

314.1Teleop382.7

133.6Endgame173.8

152Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	141	165
teleop	343	415
endgame	151	155
foul	15	20
total	650	755

Result

Final score

650 – 755

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 pts

Match videos

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