Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

698.15 – 571.92

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

676 – 568

Prediction correct · off by 13 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1000.3 ±8.7

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 106.05Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 326Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 266.1Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 794.1 ±8.1

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 183.84Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 207.39Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 180.69Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3506, 2056, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

698.2 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3506, 2056, 6329

Auto

184.5 27%

Teleop

375.0 54%

Endgame

129.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 238, 3641, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

571.9 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 238, 3641, 503

Auto

83.2 15%

Teleop

328.1 58%

Endgame

153.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.5 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score698.2pts

Blue projected score571.9pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 126.2
Score range: 492–778
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1244 vs event baseline 441.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1000.3Season APEX794.1

184.5Auto83.2

375Teleop328.1

129Endgame153.2

109Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	140	113
teleop	392	301
endgame	139	154
foul	5	0
total	676	568

Result

Final score

676 – 568

Prediction correct · off by 13 pts

Match videos

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