Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

655.12 – 672.78

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

577 – 809

Prediction correct · off by 107.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 924.2 ±8.8

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 156.62Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 233.89Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 264.61Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1000.3 ±8.7

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 96.76Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 318.69Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 257.33Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1986, 3467, 9785

/ 100 compat

Projected

655.1 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 1986, 3467, 9785

Auto

112.2 17%

Teleop

385.5 60%

Endgame

145.9 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3506, 2056, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

672.8 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3506, 2056, 6329

Auto

171.2 26%

Teleop

367.2 55%

Endgame

124.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score655.1pts

Blue projected score672.8pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.7
Score range: 573–755
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1386 vs event baseline 456.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

924.2Season APEX1000.3

112.2Auto171.2

385.5Teleop367.2

145.9Endgame124.1

143Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	127	206
teleop	258	409
endgame	167	189
foul	25	5
total	577	809

Result

Final score

577 – 809

Prediction correct · off by 107.2 pts

Match videos

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