Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

697.66 – 728.07

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

590 – 851

Prediction correct · off by 115.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 883.1 ±8.7

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 184.28Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 240.23Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 273.15Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 949.2 ±9.8

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 260.27Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 302.94Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 164.86Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11270, 1732, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

697.7 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 11270, 1732, 8044

Auto

146.9 21%

Teleop

370.7 54%

Endgame

166.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 581, 1706, 4143

/ 100 compat

Projected

728.1 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 581, 1706, 4143

Auto

160.9 22%

Teleop

389.0 54%

Endgame

176.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 44%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.89 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score697.7pts

Blue projected score728.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 44%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.4
Score range: 616–810
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1441 vs event baseline 454.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

883.1Season APEX949.2

146.9Auto160.9

370.7Teleop389

166.1Endgame176.7

133Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	138	194
teleop	150	461
endgame	302	196
foul	0	0
total	590	851

Result

Final score

590 – 851

Prediction correct · off by 115.3 pts

Match videos

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