Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

630.74 – 583.3

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

516 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 175 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 905.7 ±8.8

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 116.13Rank 47Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 242.28Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 272.33Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 794.1 ±8.1

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 189.83Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 211.14Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 182.33Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2383, 3467, 9785

/ 100 compat

Projected

630.7 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 2383, 3467, 9785

Auto

87.4 14%

Teleop

364.6 59%

Endgame

166.9 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 238, 3641, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

583.3 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 238, 3641, 503

Auto

82.6 14%

Teleop

337.1 58%

Endgame

159.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score630.7pts

Blue projected score583.3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.4
Score range: 501–713
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 864 vs event baseline 454.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

905.7Season APEX794.1

87.4Auto82.6

364.6Teleop337.1

166.9Endgame159

116Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	67
teleop	272	78
endgame	165	183
foul	0	20
total	516	348

Result

Final score

516 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 175 pts

Match videos

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